Os modelos de crescimento populacional de Malthus e Verhulst: estimando a população do município de Sanharó- PE até o ano 2032

Abstract

In this work, we present a discussion about two mathematical models that aim to estimate the population growth in the municipality of Sanharó- PE: the Thomas Malthus model (exponential model) and the Pierre Verhulst model (logistic model). From a methodological perspective, we compared these two models by fitting a function to each of them using the Geogebra software and population data provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). We sought to identify which model better represents the population growth in the reality of Sanharó and made an estimation of the population for the probable demographic census of the year 2032. At the end of the study, we discussed the differences between the two models, as well as identified which one appears to be more realistic in representing the population growth.