Impactos das mudanças climáticas na precipitação da Bacia do Rio Tapacurá: aplicações do Sistema de Unidades de Respostas Hidrológicas para Pernambuco

Abstract

This Undergraduate Thesis investigates the impacts of climate change on precipitation in the Tapacurá River Basin (Pernambuco, Brazil), employing the Hydrological Response Units System (SUPer) for modeling. The basin, vital for regional water supply, faces challenges such as rainfall variability, land-use changes, and socioeconomic pressures. The study analyzed historical climate data (1960–2020) and simulated future scenarios with a 1.5°C global temperature rise, projecting a 20% increase in annual average precipitation (from 1,501.09 mm to 1,801.43 mm). However, this rise is linked to more frequent extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall) and higher potential evapotranspiration (PET), intensifying water deficits during dry periods. Spatial analysis revealed disparities: the eastern part of the basin, closer to the coast, records higher rainfall (up to 1,600 mm/year), while the elevated western region is semi-arid (850 mm/year). Findings underscore the basin’s vulnerability to floods and droughts, worsened by unplanned urbanization and reduced baseflow (from 64.7% to 62.3% under climate change). To mitigate these impacts, the study proposes strategies like integrated water resource management, restoration of degraded areas, and storage infrastructure. The research concludes that SUPer is a viable tool for monitoring hydrological shifts in Pernambuco, providing insights for adaptive policymaking.