Modelagem de suscetibilidade a alagamentos e a inundações na cidade do Recife, Pernambuco, integrada a um aplicativo de alerta móvel

Abstract

Urban sprawl and the advance of anthropogenic climate change have intensified the occurrence of hydrological events in Recife. In recent years, the capital of Pernambuco has faced severe impacts from intense rainfall, resulting in damage to health, the environment and the economy, highlighting the city's vulnerability even in the face of relatively low rainfall volumes. In this context, this study aimed to map the susceptibility to flooding in the city of Recife, integrating the results into a mobile alert application, AlertaPE. Spatial modeling was developed using geospatial data obtained from the SIGExtrem Geographic Information System, multi-criteria analysis based on the Hierarchical Analytical Process method proposed by Saaty, and the application of map algebra in ArcGIS Pro software. To do this, the following parameters were selected: rainfall, land use and occupation, urban density, proximity to water bodies, slope, hypsometry and pedology. Map algebra of this data enabled the territory to be classified into five levels of susceptibility: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The results indicated that 51% of the mapped area of Recife is between the high and very high susceptibility classes to flooding. The model was validated through comparative analysis, and integrated into the AlertaPE application, as an accessible and technological measure to inform the population about the risks of hydrological events, as well as contributing as technical support for public managers in making decisions aimed at preventing and mitigating extreme events.